Eugene Linden
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A Nobel Prize in Economics a Climate Change Denier Might Love

It has been a scary month in climate science. Hurricane Michael and a frightening report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underlined the potential costs of human-caused global warming. Then to add insult to injury, William Nordhaus won the economics Nobel Prize.

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Latest Book

Deep Past
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Articles by Category
endangered animals
rapid climate change
global deforestation
fragging

Books

Winds of Change
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Afterword to the softbound edition.


The Octopus and the Orangutan
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The Future In Plain Sight
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The Parrot's Lament
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Silent Partners
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Affluence and Discontent
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The Alms Race
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Apes, Men, & Language
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publications

 

A Partial List of Eugene Linden's Publications

 

Books [reverse chronological order]

DEEP PAST.  Hardcover: Rosetta, May 2019. Audio: Blackstone. Kindle

THE RAGGED EDGE OF THE WORLD: Encounters at the Frontier where Modernity, Wildlands and Indegnous Peoples Meet. Hardcover: Viking, April 2011. Plume, April 2012.

THE WINDS OF CHANGE; Climate, Weather, and the Destruction of Civilizations . Hardcover: Simon and Schuster; Feb. 2006.

THE OCTOPUS AND THE ORANGUTAN; More True Tales of Animal Intrigue, Intelligence, and Ingenuity. Hardcover: Dutton; Aug. 2002.

THE PARROT'S LAMENT; And Other True Tales of Animal Intrigue, Intelligence, and Ingenuity. Hardcover: Dutton; Sept. 1999. Softbound and 11 foreign editions

THE FUTURE IN PLAIN SIGHT: Nine Clues to the Coming Instability. Simon and Schuster: August 1998. Soft: Plume; Feb. 2002

SILENT PARTNERS: The Legacy of the Ape Language Experiments. Hardcover: TIMES Books; April 1986. Soft: Ballantine; August 1987. Foreign: Dobutsusha Ltd., Japan; 1987.

AFFLUENCE AND DISCONTENT: The Anatomy of Consumer Societies. Viking/Seaver Books: 1979.

THE ALMS RACE: The Impact of American Voluntary Aid Abroad. Random House: 1976.

APES, MEN, AND LANGUAGE. Hardcover: Saturday Review Press/Dutton; Jan. 1975. Soft: Penguin; Feb. 1976, revised edition, 1981. Seven foreign editions.

Selected List of Articles [reverse chronological order]

The Economics Nobel went to a guy who enabled climate change denial and delay;  The Los Angeles Times,  Oct. 25, 2018

Remember the Population Bomb? It's Still Ticking, The New York Times; June 18, 2017

A papal call to reconcile the natural, spiritual, and industrial worlds, Financial Times; July 2, 2015

Epiphany, With Encyclopedias, The New York Times; Nov. 29, 2014; Op-Ed

The Call of the Wild, Parade; April 22, 2007

Cloudy with a Chance of Chaos , Fortune; Jan. 23, 2006

Seeing the Forest: Conservation on a Continental Scale, Foreign Affairs; July/August 2004

The Nature of Cuba, Tiny frogs. Vst swamps. Pristine rivers. Whether by design or default, the island boasts the Caibbean's best-kept wildlands. But for how long? , Smithsonian, May, 2003 [COVER]

Who's Going to Pay For Climate Change?; The threat of lawsuits — and an exodus of insurance companies — may finally force corporations to think green, Time.com; February 7, 2003

Eugene Linden Diary, Slate; June 25-28, 2001.

The Road To Disaster; If Brazil paves this route through the Amazon, the earth's largest rain forest could go up in flames, Time; October 16, 2000; ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 96. [INTERNATIONAL COVER]

The Big Meltdown; As the temperature rises in the Arctic, it sends a chill around the planet, Time; September 4, 2000; ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 52. [INTERNATIONAL COVER]

Condition Critical; An exclusive look at a U.N. assessment of Earth's ecosystems shows they are strained to the limit, Time; Spring 2000; STATE OF THE PLANET; Pg. 18. [COVER]

Bats And Brokers; Looking for clues to explain Tuesday's market gyrations? Observe a bloodsucking mammal, Time; April 17, 2000; Pg. 92.

Facing Our Ecofolly; Environmental abuse and overpopulation mean the worst is yet to come, Time; January 31, 2000; TIME LATIN AMERICA; LATIN AMERICA; Viewpoint; Pg. 19.

 

Forcasting the Digital Age, Slate Dialogue; First entry: October 14, 1998.

Volatility: Get Used to It; The global market magnifies our worst instincts, Time; September 28, 1998; INT TIME ATLANTIC; Viewpoint; Pg. 89.

Smoke Signals; Vast forest fires have scarred the globe, but the worst may be yet to come, Time; June 22, 1998; ENVIRONMENT/PLANET WATCH; Pg. 50.

How to Kill a Tiger; Speculators tell the story of their attack against the Baht, the opening act of an ongoing drama, Time; November 3, 1997; TIME ASIA; Pg. 24.

What Have We Wrought?; Our descendants in the next century may find themselves paying dearly for the material magic of the consumer society, Time; November 1997; TIME ASIA SPECIAL ISSUE/OUR PRECIOUS PLANET; OVERVIEW; Pg. 10.

Legions of the Dispossessed; Land degradation is creating multitudes of ecomigrants who cross borders and threaten the security of nations, Time; November 1997; TIME ASIA SPECIAL ISSUE/OUR PRECIOUS PLANET; VIEWPOINT; Pg. 28.

A World Awakens; History Shows that societies pollute first and pay later. Will the new awareness change our ways before it’s too late? Time; November 1997; TIME ASIA SPECIAL ISSUE/OUR PRECIOUS PLANET; PERSPECTIVE; Pg. 80.

A Way to Break the Impasse on Global Warming, The New York Times; September 27, 1997, Saturday, Late Edition - Final, Section A; Page 15; Column 1; Editorial Desk.

From Rio to Ruin?; Maybe not. As the U.N. Dithers, the poor take action, Time; July 7, 1997; VIEWPOINT; Pg. 33.

Antartica; Warnings from the ice the conventional wisdom is that climate change will be gradual and moderate. But what if it is sudden and extreme? A frozen wilderness may hold the answer, Time; April 14, 1997; ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 54. [INTERNTIONAL COVER]

Global Fever; Climate change threatens more than megastorms, floods and droughts. The real peril may be disease, Time; July 8, 1996; ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 56.

The Tree Gods Are a Bit Testy, The New York Times; June 22, 1996; Op-Ed.

The Exploding Cities of the Developing World, Foreign Affairs; January/February 1996;

ESSAYS; Pg. 52.

The Tortured Land; An epic landscape steeped in tragedy, Siberia suffered grievously under communism. Now the world’s capitalists covet its vast riches, Time; September 4, 1995; Pg. 42. [COVER]

 

Chain Saws Invade Eden; Vast, pristine forests in South America's sparsely populated Guyanas ought to be safe. Not so., Time; August 29, 1994; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 58.

Ancient Creatures In A Lost World; In an isolated, rugged region that divides Vietnam and Laos, scientists find a trove of new species, Time; June 20, 1994; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 52.

Population: The Awkward Truth, Time; June 20, 1994; U.S. Edition, ESSAY; Pg. 74.

Tigers On The Brink, Time; March 28, 1994; U.S. Edition, Pg. 44. [COVER]

Burned By Warming, Time; March 14, 1994; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 79.

 

Sustainable Follies, Time; May 24, 1993; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 56.

Who Lost The Ozone?; How the world waited too long to rescue the shield that protects earth from the sun's dangerous UV rays, Time; May 10, 1993; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 56.

Will the System Defeat Al Gore? Time; February 1, 1993; U.S. Edition, ESSAY; Pg. 74.

Megacities,Time; January 11, 1993; U.S. Edition, Pg. 28. [COVER]

The Green Factor; Does protecting the planet destroy jobs? Time; October 12, 1992; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 57.

The Last Eden; A trip into a remote African rain forest is a journey back in time to a world where the animals have never encountered humans. Time; July 13, 1992; U.S. Edition, Pg. 62. [COVER]

Summit To Save The Earth; Rio’s Legacy; Time; June 22, 1992; U.S. Edition, Pg. 44.

Summit To Save The Earth; Population: The Uninvited Guest, Time; June 1, 1992; U.S. Edition, Pg. 54.

Apes and Humans: A curious kinship, National Geographic; March 1992. [COVER]

Demanding Payment for Good Behavior, Time; February 3, 1992; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 52.

 

Hot Air at The Earth Summit?; As the U.S. stonewalls a Rio meeting, citizens offer a planet-saving proposal, Time; November 4, 1991; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 77.

TIME cover story: ">Lost Tribes, Lost Knowledge, Time; September 23, 1991; U.S. Edition, CULTURES; Pg. 46. [COVER]

Foreign Aid; Good Intentions, Woeful Results; How an ambitious environmental program ended up damaging the tropical rain forests, Time; April 1, 1991; U.S. Edition, WORLD; Pg. 48.

Endangered Earth Update; Is the planet on the back burner?; War and recession may be grabbing the headlines, but the relentless trashing of the world’s air, land and seas continues apace, Time; December 24, 1990; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 48.

The Last Drops; Population growth and development have depleted and polluted the world's water supply, raising the risk of starvation, epidemics and even wars, Time; August 20, 1990; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 58. [INTERNATIONAL COVER]

Dashed Hopes and Bogus Fears; The Smithsonian chronicles an unpredictable Information age, Time; June 11, 1990; U.S. Edition, TECHNOLOGY; Pg. 58.

Earth Day; Will the Ballyhoo go bust? Time; April 23, 1990; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 86.

Can We Really Understand Matter? Time; April 16, 1990; U.S. Edition, SCIENCE; Pg. 57.

 

How the Earth Maintains Life; An intriguing scientific theory continues to win adherents, Time; November 13, 1989; U.S. Edition, IDEAS; Pg. 114.

Special Report: Greening of Geopolitics; How the U.S. Can Take The Lead in the Third World; First: stop sending mixed signals, Time; October 23, 1989; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 63.

Playing with Fire; Destruction of the Amazon is "one of the great tragedies of history", Time; September 18, 1989; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Cover Story; Pg. 76. [COVER]

Putting the Heat on Japan; Accused of ravaging the world's forests and seas, Tokyo starts to clean up its act, Time; July 10, 1989; U.S. Edition, ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 50.

BIODIVERSITY; The Death of Birth; THE PROBLEM: Man is recklessly wiping out life on earth, Time; January 2, 1989; U.S. Edition, PLANET OF THE YEAR; Pg. 32. [COVER]

 

 

Putting Knowledge to Work; Suddenly, artificial intelligence produces some results, Time; March 28, 1988; U.S. Edition, TECHNOLOGY; Pg. 60.[COVER]

Boom in the Bust Market; Taking Stock in Bankruptcy, Time; October 12, 1987; U.S. Edition, ECONOMY & BUSINESS; Pg. 52.

The Gambia; signs in the wilderness, The Atlantic; March, 1986; Vol. 257 ; Pg. 32.

Let A Thousand Flowers Bloom Inc., April, 1984, THE AGE OF THE ENTREPRENEUR; Pg. 64.

Politics Means Getting To Say You’re Sorry Wall Street Journal, Op-Ed 1984.

The Demoralization of an Army: Fragging and Other Withdrawal Symptoms Saturday Review; January 8, 1972.[COVER]

contact Eugene Linden

Short Take

THOUGHTS ON WHY THE EARLY IPCC ASSESSMENTS UNDERSTATED THE CLIMATE THREAT

 

An oped involves extreme compression, and so I thought I’d expand on why I think the initial IPCC reports so underestimated the threat. Make no mistake, the consensus in the summaries for policy makers in the first two assessments did underestimate the threat. The consensus was that permafrost would be stable for the next 100 years and also that the ice sheets would remain stable (there was even a strong sentiment at that time that the East Antarctic sheet would gain mass). Moreover, in 1990, the concept of rapid climate change was at the periphery of mainstream scientific opinion. All these things turned out to be wrong

Of course, there were scientists at that time who raised alarms about the possibility of rapid climate change, collapse of the ice sheets, and nightmare scenarios of melting permafrost, but, fairly or not, the IPCC summary for policy makers was and is taken to represent the consensus of scientific thinking.

In my opinion such documents will always take a more conservative (less dramatic) position than what scientists feel is justified. For one thing the IPCC included policy makers, most of whom were more incentivized to downplay the threats. For another, many of the national governments that were the customers for these assessments barely tolerated the exercise and gave strong signals that they didn’t want to see anything that called for dramatic action, and this being the UN, there was a strong push to present a document that as many governments as possible would accept.

And then there is the nature of science and the state of climate science at that point. There is an inherent structural lag built in to the nature of science. For instance, the 1980’s were marked by the rapid development of proxies to see past climate changes with ever more precision. By the mid-late 80’s the proxies and siting had been refined sufficiently that the GISP and GRIP projects could confidently get ice cores from Greenland that they felt represented a true climate record and by then they also had the proxies with the resolution to see the rapid changes that had taken place in the past. Given the nature of data collection, interpretation, peer-review and publishing, it wasn’t until 1993 that these results were published.

It took nearly another decade for this new, alarming, paradigm about how rapidly global climate can change to percolate through the scientific community, and, even today, much of the public is unaware that climate can change on a dime.

As for the ice sheets, when I was on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in 1996, there was talk about the acceleratio of  ice streams feeding the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers, but the notion that there might be a significant increase in runoff from the ice sheet over the next hundred years was still very much a fringe idea.

With permafrost, the problem was a sparsity of data in the 80s and early 90s and it is understandable that scientists didn’t want to venture beyond the data.

The problem for society as a whole was that the muted consensus on the scale of the threat diminished any sense of urgency about dealing with the problem. Perhaps the best example of this was the early work of William Nordhaus. Working from the IPCC best estimates in the early 1990s Nordhaus published one paper in which he predicted the hit to the US GDP from climate change in 2100 would be about ½ of 1%. Nobody is going to jump out of their chair and demand action if the hit to the economy was going to be 0.5% of GPD a hundred years laterLibertarians such as William Niskanen seized on this and testified before Congress that there was plenty of time to deal with global warming if it was a threat at all.  

And then there was the disinformation campaign of industry, particularly fossil fuel lobbyists, as well as pressure from unions (the UAW in particular) and the financial community. These highly motivated, deep-pocketed interests seized on scientific caution to suggest deep divisions among scientists and that the threat was overplayed. Little wonder then that the public failed to appreciate that this was a looming crisis that demanded immediate, concerted action.

 



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