Eugene Linden
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THE OZONE CHRONICLES; HISTORY REPEATING AS TRAGEDY

Joe Farnam, the dogged, data-driven discoverer of the ozone hole, died in 2013, three years before publication of findings showing that the ozone layer, which protects life on earth from UV radiation, has finally started to recover. This nascent recovery comes 42 years after atmospheric chemists fir...

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GLOBALFEVER

CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS MORE THAN MEGASTORMS, FLOODS AND DROUGHTS. THE REAL PERIL MAY BE DISEASE
BY EUGENE LINDEN


Monday, Jul. 08, 1996
Floods. Droughts. Hurricanes. Twisters. Are all the bizarre weather extremes we've been having lately normal fluctuations in the planet's atmospheric systems? Or are they a precursor of the kind of climactic upheavals that can be expected from the global warming caused by the continued buildup of CO2 and the other so-called greenhouse gases? Scientists are still not sure. But one of the effects of the unusual stretch of weather over the past 15 years has been to alert researchers to a new and perhaps even more immediate threat of the warming trend: the rapid spread of disease-bearing bugs and pests.

Climate change, whether natural or man-made, may already be spreading disease and pestilence, according to a host of new studies, including a major report being prepared by the World Health Organization and other international institutions for release this summer. Malaria, for example, has been flourishing in recent years owing to unusually hot weather. Similarly, climate disruptions may be giving new life to such ancient scourges as yellow fever, meningitis and cholera, while fostering the spread of emerging diseases like hantavirus.

Underlying all these outbreaks is the same Darwinian mechanism: unusual weather such as dry spells in wet areas or torrential rains in normally dry spots tends to favor so-called opportunistic pests--rodents, insects, bacteria, protozoa, viruses--while making life more difficult for the predators that usually control them. Episodes of extreme weather are routinely followed by outbreaks of plagues, both old and new. Among the most recent examples:

CHOLERA. In 1991 a freighter coming from South Asia emptied its bilges off the coast of Peru. Along with the wastewater came a strain of cholera that found a home in huge algal blooms stimulated by unusually warm ocean waters and abundant pollution. The microbe then made its way into shellfish and humans. So far, the epidemic has infected over half a million people and killed at least 5,000.

HANTAVIRUS. In 1993 a six-year drought followed by heavy rains produced a tenfold increase in the population of deer mice in the American Southwest, leading to an outbreak of a deadly form of pulmonary hantavirus. The disease, which first appeared on a Navajo reservation, has since spread to 20 states and killed 45 people, nearly half of those infected.

PLAGUE. In 1994 a long monsoon in northern India followed by 90 consecutive days of 100[degrees]F heat drove rats into the cities. In Surat, they caused an outbreak of pneumonic plague. The ensuing panic killed 63 people and ultimately cost India $2 billion.

DENGUE FEVER. The coastal mountain ranges of Costa Rica had long confined dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease accompanied by incapacitating bone pain, to the country's Pacific shore. But in 1995 rising temperatures allowed Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to breach the coastal barrier and invade the rest of the country. Dengue also advanced elsewhere in Latin America, reaching as far north as the Texas border. By September the epidemic had killed 4,000 of the 140,000 people infected.

Of all the infectious diseases humans will have to contend with as the world gets warmer, malaria may be the worst. Malaria is already the world's most widespread mosquito-borne illness. Rising temperatures will not only expand the range of Anopheles mosquitoes, but make them more active biters as well. Paul Epstein, an epidemiologist with the Harvard School of Public Health, notes that a temperature rise of 4 [degrees] F would more than double mosquito metabolism, forcing them to feed more often. A 4 [degrees] F rise in global temperatures could also expand malaria's domain from 42% to 60% of the planet. When temperatures rise above 104 [degrees] F, mosquitoes begin to die off--but at those temperatures, so do people and the crops on which they live.

Humans often make matters worse for themselves by the changes they make in their local environments. Unusually warm waters played an important role in the cholera epidemic that hit Latin America in 1991, but the outbreak was also exacerbated by sewage poured into the waters off Asia and Latin America, the destruction of pollution-filtering mangroves in the Bay of Bengal and overcrowding in the cities.

The same synergies that empower microbes also weaken our defenses against them. Heat, increased ultraviolet radiation resulting from ozone depletion, and pollutants like chlorinated hydrocarbons all suppress the disease-battling immune systems--both for humans and for other animals. Epstein, who is one of the principal authors of the upcoming WHO study, notes that in recent years variants of the class of viruses that includes measles have killed seals in the North Sea, lions in the Serengeti and horses in Australia--three very different animals widely scattered around the globe.

A common denominator in each case: abnormal weather had caused malnutrition, weakened animal immune systems and spurred the reproduction of viruses. Epstein also notes that once ordinarily benign microbes invade weakened animals, they can become sufficiently deadly to invade healthy populations. The real threat for people, says Epstein, may not be a single disease, but armies of emergent microbes raising havoc among a host of creatures. "The message I take home," he says, "is that diseases afflicting plants and animals can send ripples through economies and societies no less disastrous than those affecting humans."

A small but persistent group of critics, many of them supported by the oil and coal industries, still don't buy it. S. Fred Singer, president of the industry-funded Science and Environment Policy Project, argues that Epstein and his colleagues fail to note the positive health benefits of warmer nights and winters. Others, like John Shlaes, executive director of the Global Climate Coalition, suggest that when the world is faced with the pressing health problems stemming from overcrowded cities and the collapse of sanitation systems, the threat of disease caused by climate change may seem like a minor concern.

No one disputes the role of poverty and overpopulation in spreading disease. That is no reason to ignore the warnings sounded by Epstein and his colleagues, however. Scientists first raised alarms about climate change in the late 1980s, but the international community has taken few concrete steps to address the problem. The world is gambling, in effect, that problems in the future will not be serious enough to warrant inconvenience in the present. With each passing year, the future gets closer and that bet gets bigger.

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Short Take

[Mild spoiler alert: the book is a fictionalized exploration of a girl who falls under the spell of a Manson-like cult. We all know how that story unfolded. In this Short Take I’ll be offering my reactions to the protagonist, Evie Boyd.]

 

The Girls offers as bleak a view of the amorality of American youth as I have ever encountered. In a review of my first book, I was called “Intolerably apocalyptic,” but I can’t hold a candle to Ms. Cline. The book is a novelistic attempt to try and understand how some of the privileged young women of the late 1960s could commit unspeakable acts while under the sway of a Manson-like psychopath. 

 Thus we meet Evie Boyd, a fourteen year-old growing up amid relative affluence in Petaluma California. She’s directionless, with no apparent passions, self-conscious about her looks, emotionally needy, alienated from her parents (who get divorced), but possessed of a tough inner core and a rebellious streak. She’s enthralled when she encounters Suzanne, a wild, charismatic 19 year-old who seems to be a composite of Patricia Krenwinkel and Leslie Van Houton, and Evie is honored when Suzanne pays her some attention. Events bring her to the cult’s squalid ranch, and for some weeks, Evie maintains a dual life, throwing herself into the life of the cult, while returning home enough not to galvanize her mother, who is pre-occupied with a rebound relationship with Frank, an entrepreneur who comes across as a hustler with a heart of gold.

Evie is so smitten by Suzanne that she doesn’t notice as the cult spirals down from talk of love and freedom to episodes of paranoia, back-biting and revenge. Along the way, Evie has her first sexual adventures, and enters sufficiently into the spirit of the cult that she brings them to the house of the family next door (which they descrate), even though she has known the family all her life and has no score to settle. Later, Evie talks her way into joining Suzanne as she and others set off to inflict mayhem on a Dennis Wilson-like figure, but Suzanne kicks her out of the car before they begin a horrific rampage.

Did Suzanne do this to protect Evie from what she knew was about to happen, or because she felt that Evie wasn’t a murderer and would become a liability? That’s left unanswered, but the bloodbath that Evie missed is so depraved – including the slashing apart of a toddler – that no human with a soul could find that earlier gesture redemptive … except for our Evie, who still feels the tug of Suzanne’s power, even after she learns every gory detail of Suzanne’s actions.

It’s several months between the time of the murders and when the cult is finally caught. During this time, Evie keeps her mouth shut about what happens and meekly allows herself to be shipped off to boarding school to resume her comfortable existence, though as a wreck, not a spirited teenager.

That’s when I decided Evie was a worthless human being. Sure, she was terrified that the cult would come after her, and there’s some honor on not squealing, but Evie had to know that the cult would likely kill again, and that made her an enabler of whatever they did subsequently.

The book interweaves the present and the past and so we learn how these events haunted Evie’s life. But there’s no redemptive moment, no act where she summons the courage to do the right thing, or rises above her own self-absorption. Even in the present, when the psychopath-in-the-making son of a friend and his underage, impressionable girlfriend crash at her digs, she can only summon a half-hearted (and failed) attempt to save the girl from following the path that so grievously sidetracked her own life.

All the men in the book are either pathetic or pigs of various shapes and forms – except for a premed student named Tom, who sees the cult for what it is, but who Evie rejects as a dork. Towards the end of the book, Evie ticks off a long list of subsequent experiences with awful men that could summon in her the hatred to commit horrendous crimes, seeming to imply that with the right mix of events, she too might have become a Suzanne, and, by implication, so could enormous numbers of other young women.

My first reaction was to call “Bullshit!” Were all young women potential Suzannes, we would have seen endless repeats of the Manson horrors in the nearly 50 years since the events. Instead, those murders still stand as a touchstone of horror because nothing since has eclipsed their mindless violence.

The Manson cult was at the far far end of the normal curve during truly abnormal times. In just the two years leading up to the murders, we had the huge escalation of a senseless war, the explosion of the anti-war movement and counter-culture, a breakdown of generational trust, my generation’s first experiences with powerful, mind-altering drugs, and a sexual revolution. In a country of more than 200 million people, that roiling stew of disruptive forces bubbled to the surface about 20 broken souls, deranged by drugs and in the thrall of a false prophet.

On reflection, however, maybe Ms. Clein was making a different point. All we have to think of are the teenage executioners of Pol Pot’s Cambodia or the child soldiers of Africa to recognize that the capacity for evil lies latent in the young. And, while in fiction we want our protagonists to find redemption or transcend their flaws perhaps Evie’s failure to rise to the occasion was making the point that a civilization that keeps our murderous impulses in check is not innate, but something external that has to be actively inculcated and supported. That’s something to keep in mind amid the current insanity of gun violence, and as more dark clouds gather on the horizon.



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