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Imagining a Post Pandemic World

How might a post-pandemic world look and feel? Let’s imagine a creative team at a New York City advertising agency pitching a campaign in 2050 for a new perfume (more than most products, perfumes are sold by attaching to the dreams and aspirations of their times).  The Big Apple, ...

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Covid Lunacy


Friday April 10, 2020

So far Trump’s approach to the coronavirus seems to be a porridge of Keystone Kops, Don Corleone, and Boss Tweed. The results are bad, but thanks to the state governors and the Fed, the ship of state is leaking but afloat. Now, however, Trump seems to be looking at a new mentor: Pol Pot. If he goes ahead and tries to reopen the economy prematurely, he’s setting the stage for mass death and the breakdown of society. It’s up to those around him to stop this lethal lunacy.

Even now there are supply disruptions because of truckers, deliverymen, grocery clerks, food inspectors, farm workers, and other essential workers either getting sick or not showing up for work. We take for granted the vast, attenuated chains that get food out of the field and into the stores. Those supply chains are built on innumerable workers, almost none of whom have immunity to this disease.  If there’s another wave of resurgent COVID before treatment or a vaccine, it’s hard to imagine that this fragile network will continue to function. A week of empty shelves and the US could be headed for a Mad Max future.

Already, I’ve begun to notice a breakdown in quality control; national brand grapefruit juice that’s turned, little things like that. It’s anecdotal, but perhaps a sign of things to come as the people who are our safeguards withdraw. Those in the Trump administration and the GOP controlled Senate must recognize that the Republic might not hold together until the next election if there’s a second wave of this disease before we have a vaccine or cure. 

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Short Take

Relaxing COVID-19 Restrictions will Kill, not Save, the Economy


 

[This is a more developed version of the previous Short Take}

Those who want to relax mandates on self-isolation and social distancing to save the economy have got it exactly backwards. Reopen society too soon, and we risk destroying the economy as well as public order and our shaky democratic institutions. The reason comes down to two words: supply lines.

 Supply lines for necessities such as food are already under stress. Those going to grocery stories encounter random instances of empty shelves and vegetable bins. Smithfield Farms shut down a South Dakota plant that supplies roughly 4% of the pork in the nation after over 500 of its workers tested positive for the coronavirus. Other giant meat processors such as Tyson have also shut down plants for similar reasons. Farmers in the West are having trouble finding workers to harvest the crops now reaching maturity in the fields. And even if they manage to get the crops picked, farmers are out of luck if the truckers fail to show up, or the flow of packaging for their products get interrupted. 

Right now, these disruptions are episodic, but that should be concerning because we haven’t even seen the end of the first wave. What we have seen is that vital front-line workers such as nurses, doctors, EMT’s, and other first responders have had trouble finding protective equipment and maintaining morale. Some have staged walkouts over the dangerous conditions, and these are workers with a sense of mission.

By contrast, for most of the hourly-paid workers who keep supplies made, distributed, and sold, their work is a job that pays the bills. It would be appropriate if society recognized that they played a vital role, but mostly these workers encounter demanding bosses, monotony, and surly customers. If sick, they are not going to work – nor would we want them too. And they are not likely to risk their lives if going to work exposes them to contagion.

Disruption of one link, e.g. the trucker that delivers food the last mile, could halt a supply chain. COVID-19 is a threat to every link. Should a second wave hit before there is a readily available, cheap and effective treatment, it’s a very high probability that many supply lines will be disrupted and filling the gaps could easily overwhelm the nation’s businesses. 

Even today, on the evening news, we see images of vast caravans of cars lined up to get supplies from food banks. Imagine two weeks of empty shelves in the stores that feed our cities. How likely is it that civil order could be maintained in that situation? Will people suffer in silence if they realize that they can’t buy food for their kids because our leaders reopened the economy before a treatment was available because they wanted to prop up the stock market (which is how it will be portrayed)? If we want to look analogues for what life is like once supply chains break down, they’re readily available today in cities like Mogadishu, Kinshasa, and Port au Prince. 

 Thus far, the Trump administration’s response to the pandemic seems to be a mélange of Boss Tweed, Don Corleone and Inspector Clouseau. For the next act, the administration has a choice: Churchill, who bolstered British morale during the London Blitz, or Pol Pot, who sacrificed millions of his countrymen for a bad idea. Let’s hope those around Trump can convince him that the cure for the disease is the cure for the economy.
 



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