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Imagining a Post Pandemic World

How might a post-pandemic world look and feel? Let’s imagine a creative team at a New York City advertising agency pitching a campaign in 2050 for a new perfume (more than most products, perfumes are sold by attaching to the dreams and aspirations of their times).  The Big Apple, ...

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Deep Past
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Winds of Change
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Afterword to the softbound edition.


The Octopus and the Orangutan
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The Future In Plain Sight
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The Parrot's Lament
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Silent Partners
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Affluence and Discontent
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The Alms Race
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Apes, Men, & Language
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A REPUBLIC OF BIRDS: THOUGHTS FROM MIDWAY ATOLL


Thursday January 24, 2008

EUGENE LINDEN
Iíve been to a number of places where wild animals are trusting of humans, but perhaps none so unlikely as Midway Atoll, smack in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. After more than a century of abuse at the hands of man -- first being slaughtered for their feathers by hunters, then being paved over by Seabees, then shelled by the Japanese during World War II, and finally Osterized by the engines of the planes of the U.S. Strategic Air Command during the Cold War -- the albatross and other birds donít seem to bear a grudge. Maybe thatís because theyíve won. Albatross have succeeded where the Japanese military failed and have successfully taken over the island. And, they did it in a way that Mahatma Ghandi would applaud Ė through passive resistance. Itís only fair since theyíve have ancestral rights to Midway (or whatever itís called in Albatross-speak), but itís still both eerie and wonderful to see how the birds been able to enforce an avian eminent domain and build their nests on every available open space, including the middle of the islandís paths. Even more moving is the gracious way in which we humans have surrendered control and allowed the establishment of a republic of birds. For the most part itís a peaceable nation, and the citizens are irresistible, albeit short. Iíve discovered that itís impossible not to talk to them as I make my way around the island on foot or on bike. For their part, the albatross make we humans feel like superstars as we pick our way among them. The combined effect of tens of thousands of birds clacking in the background makes it seem as though our every move is accompanied by polite applause from a very large crowd. Their curiosity and clumsiness on land make them endearing. Every day, our group trades stories of heart-stopping take-offs as birds flap their wings and run wildly down impromptu runways that open in the middle of the nesting area. More often than not they inadvertently step on a nesting bird at some point during take off, eliciting an indignant squawk. The concept of zoning doesnít seem to have taken hold in bird land, although there are a couple of paths to the beaches that the albatross use for a more official runway, and the albatross using these runways even line up and (mostly) take turns. Landings are even more dramatic. If youíre an albatross, every landing seems to be an emergency landing. Unless thereís a stiff wind to land into, they have to put on the brakes immediately on touch-down, and quite often this ends up in a face plant, if not a collision with another hapless bird. In the air, though, they are magnificent, even heroic, and their life style would appeal to both feminists and the most fire-breathing moralists. Feminists would have a hard time finding fault with males who pitch in and take over care of the baby immediately after hatching while the mom gets a chance to rest up. Albatross may be one of the few species where spouses are actually an asset, rather than a clumsy menace, around newborns. On the other hand the ďvaluesĒ crowd might find inspiration in their commitment to monogamy since the birds mate for life. All in all Midway today is a happy place. The few humans working here or visiting here all care deeply about restoring the atoll as the haven for wildlife. God knows the albatross need it. Between the plastics that get into their digestive systems when they feed, to the impacts of global warming, the albatross run a gauntlet of threats during their life on the high seas. Once back on the atoll, however, at least for the moment, they find a haven where humans have turned the infrastructure of war and conflict towards their betterment. Theyíve managed to get a superpower as a protector and they donít control a drop of oil -- no mean trick for a birdbrain. Thatís an auspicious augury at the dawn of the 21st century.

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Short Take

Relaxing COVID-19 Restrictions will Kill, not Save, the Economy


 

[This is a more developed version of the previous Short Take}

Those who want to relax mandates on self-isolation and social distancing to save the economy have got it exactly backwards. Reopen society too soon, and we risk destroying the economy as well as public order and our shaky democratic institutions. The reason comes down to two words: supply lines.

 Supply lines for necessities such as food are already under stress. Those going to grocery stories encounter random instances of empty shelves and vegetable bins. Smithfield Farms shut down a South Dakota plant that supplies roughly 4% of the pork in the nation after over 500 of its workers tested positive for the coronavirus. Other giant meat processors such as Tyson have also shut down plants for similar reasons. Farmers in the West are having trouble finding workers to harvest the crops now reaching maturity in the fields. And even if they manage to get the crops picked, farmers are out of luck if the truckers fail to show up, or the flow of packaging for their products get interrupted. 

Right now, these disruptions are episodic, but that should be concerning because we haven’t even seen the end of the first wave. What we have seen is that vital front-line workers such as nurses, doctors, EMT’s, and other first responders have had trouble finding protective equipment and maintaining morale. Some have staged walkouts over the dangerous conditions, and these are workers with a sense of mission.

By contrast, for most of the hourly-paid workers who keep supplies made, distributed, and sold, their work is a job that pays the bills. It would be appropriate if society recognized that they played a vital role, but mostly these workers encounter demanding bosses, monotony, and surly customers. If sick, they are not going to work – nor would we want them too. And they are not likely to risk their lives if going to work exposes them to contagion.

Disruption of one link, e.g. the trucker that delivers food the last mile, could halt a supply chain. COVID-19 is a threat to every link. Should a second wave hit before there is a readily available, cheap and effective treatment, it’s a very high probability that many supply lines will be disrupted and filling the gaps could easily overwhelm the nation’s businesses. 

Even today, on the evening news, we see images of vast caravans of cars lined up to get supplies from food banks. Imagine two weeks of empty shelves in the stores that feed our cities. How likely is it that civil order could be maintained in that situation? Will people suffer in silence if they realize that they can’t buy food for their kids because our leaders reopened the economy before a treatment was available because they wanted to prop up the stock market (which is how it will be portrayed)? If we want to look analogues for what life is like once supply chains break down, they’re readily available today in cities like Mogadishu, Kinshasa, and Port au Prince. 

 Thus far, the Trump administration’s response to the pandemic seems to be a mťlange of Boss Tweed, Don Corleone and Inspector Clouseau. For the next act, the administration has a choice: Churchill, who bolstered British morale during the London Blitz, or Pol Pot, who sacrificed millions of his countrymen for a bad idea. Let’s hope those around Trump can convince him that the cure for the disease is the cure for the economy.
 



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