Eugene Linden
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Imagining a Post Pandemic World

How might a post-pandemic world look and feel? Let’s imagine a creative team at a New York City advertising agency pitching a campaign in 2050 for a new perfume (more than most products, perfumes are sold by attaching to the dreams and aspirations of their times).  The Big Apple, ...

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Winds of Change
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Afterword to the softbound edition.


The Octopus and the Orangutan
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The Future In Plain Sight
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The Parrot's Lament
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Silent Partners
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Affluence and Discontent
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Apes, Men, & Language
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Everyone Saw This Coming


Friday May 22, 2015

Twenty-seven years ago, when the world briefly awoke to the threats of global warming and tropical deforestation, scientists could only speculate on what changes might come in the future. Now, one need only look and observe.

Nineteen years ago, I went to Antarctica to report for Time magazine on the ways in which global warming was affecting the frozen continent. One concern was the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (or WAIS).

In 1996, scientists had detected an increase in the velocity of the so-called “ice streams,” which transport ice from the interior of the immense glacier to the shore. The fear was that as WAIS diminished, salt water might intrude under the ice and eventually cause it to float, raising sea level around the world, and inundating large swaths of Florida, not to mention Bangladesh, Indonesia and other low lying areas that are home to hundreds of millions of people.

This year, Eric Rignot, a scientist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, published a study confirming these fears with the stark conclusion that the ice sheet is in a state of “irreversible decline,” and in early May, Princeton University researchers released a new study confirming the accelerating melting.

The great ice sheet won’t collapse any time soon, but it’s a chilling thought in a warming world that an ice sheet that has been stable through the entire time modern humans have existed has now begun to come apart.

More than 20 years ago, INPE, Brazil’s Space Agency published studies arguing that continued cutting of the Amazon was diminishing the vast forest’s ability to recycle moisture. Water – it used to be seven trillion tons each year – evaporated from the Amazon forest rises above the forest, bounces south along the Andes, and then is carried by prevailing winds, first across the dryer areas of southern Brazil and then, after traversing the Atlantic, to South Africa, where it nourishes the corn crop. Since then, the forest has shrunk by an area equivalent to the size of Texas, and now residents of Sao Paulo, the hemisphere’s largest city, desperately scrabble for water after multiple years of drought have desiccated the reservoirs.

And of course, at the same time, California is trying to cope with the worst drought in its modern history. This drought was predicted 18 years ago by Richard Seager of Columbia University, who in 1998 published a paper in Science arguing that a warming world shifted the global precipitation patterns pole ward leaving California and other mid-latitude regions in a rain shadow. Exacerbating California’s problems has been a diminished snowpack – this year at 6 percent of normal. Ordinarily, the snowpack stores water and then melting acts as a meter, delivering water during the dry summer months. Tim Barnett of Scripps Oceanographic Institute first predicted 15 years ago that the combination of drought and warming would have this result.

Are you seeing the pattern here? Time and again, the world’s best scientists have done their job and made predictions based on the best available evidence, only to watch in dismay as their predictions come true because an oblivious world fails to act.

Many other predictions made about the likely consequences of global warming have come to pass: more extreme weather events (a drumbeat of such studies the mid-1990s, with the most recent published in Nature Climate Change on April 27); the disappearance of arctic sea; the collapse of fish populations in the Pacific; and even the series of frigid winters in the Northeast, fueled by a slowdown of the ocean circulation pattern that distributes heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic (predicted by Wallace Broecker of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in an article in Science in 1997, and now back in the news).

Can it be said unequivocally that the drought in California is related to climate change, or that Sao Paulo’s water crisis is tied to cutting of the Amazon, or that there is, in fact undeniable evidence of an increase in extreme weather events? Nope, weather might be the most complicated phenomenon on the planet, influenced at any given time by myriad cycles as well as by such disparate factors as air pollution, land, even the expansion of cities, as well as the difficulty of obtaining consistent measurements on a global scale.

As new predictions of past decades come to pass, however, it makes it harder to explain these changes as coincidence. And there are quite unequivocal signals of a warming planet. Sea level rise, resulting from increased melting of ice and the thermal expansion of the oceans, offers a mute, global signal of a warming planet. Moreover, sea level is rising much faster than predicted, possibly because ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting more rapidly than predicted.

Could any of these unfortunate events have been prevented? Of course! Fifty years ago, Rachel Carson published Silent Spring, which warned that unchecked use of DDT would lead to the collapse of bird populations. The United States and other developed nations banned the pesticide, and bird populations have recovered to the point where bald eagles visit New York City (China ignored the warnings about DDT, and has suffered the silent spring that Carson predicted). Dealing with greenhouse gas emissions is vastly more complicated, but it is highly likely that the world would be in a better position to fight the threat now had it begun to take action in 1988.

Now we’ve gone backwards. Thanks to a campaign to discredit the threat of climate change financed by the fossil fuel industry and vigorously promoted by Fox News and other right-leaning media, fewer Americans think global warming is human caused than they did eight years ago, according to a recent study conducted by Anthony Leiserowitz* of Yale University.

Think about that: even as predictions of past decades have become reality, the American attitude about global warming has shifted towards “prove it.” One thing is certain: we’ve forfeited the right to say, “Nobody saw this coming.”

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Short Take

Relaxing COVID-19 Restrictions will Kill, not Save, the Economy


 

[This is a more developed version of the previous Short Take}

Those who want to relax mandates on self-isolation and social distancing to save the economy have got it exactly backwards. Reopen society too soon, and we risk destroying the economy as well as public order and our shaky democratic institutions. The reason comes down to two words: supply lines.

 Supply lines for necessities such as food are already under stress. Those going to grocery stories encounter random instances of empty shelves and vegetable bins. Smithfield Farms shut down a South Dakota plant that supplies roughly 4% of the pork in the nation after over 500 of its workers tested positive for the coronavirus. Other giant meat processors such as Tyson have also shut down plants for similar reasons. Farmers in the West are having trouble finding workers to harvest the crops now reaching maturity in the fields. And even if they manage to get the crops picked, farmers are out of luck if the truckers fail to show up, or the flow of packaging for their products get interrupted. 

Right now, these disruptions are episodic, but that should be concerning because we haven’t even seen the end of the first wave. What we have seen is that vital front-line workers such as nurses, doctors, EMT’s, and other first responders have had trouble finding protective equipment and maintaining morale. Some have staged walkouts over the dangerous conditions, and these are workers with a sense of mission.

By contrast, for most of the hourly-paid workers who keep supplies made, distributed, and sold, their work is a job that pays the bills. It would be appropriate if society recognized that they played a vital role, but mostly these workers encounter demanding bosses, monotony, and surly customers. If sick, they are not going to work – nor would we want them too. And they are not likely to risk their lives if going to work exposes them to contagion.

Disruption of one link, e.g. the trucker that delivers food the last mile, could halt a supply chain. COVID-19 is a threat to every link. Should a second wave hit before there is a readily available, cheap and effective treatment, it’s a very high probability that many supply lines will be disrupted and filling the gaps could easily overwhelm the nation’s businesses. 

Even today, on the evening news, we see images of vast caravans of cars lined up to get supplies from food banks. Imagine two weeks of empty shelves in the stores that feed our cities. How likely is it that civil order could be maintained in that situation? Will people suffer in silence if they realize that they can’t buy food for their kids because our leaders reopened the economy before a treatment was available because they wanted to prop up the stock market (which is how it will be portrayed)? If we want to look analogues for what life is like once supply chains break down, they’re readily available today in cities like Mogadishu, Kinshasa, and Port au Prince. 

 Thus far, the Trump administration’s response to the pandemic seems to be a mélange of Boss Tweed, Don Corleone and Inspector Clouseau. For the next act, the administration has a choice: Churchill, who bolstered British morale during the London Blitz, or Pol Pot, who sacrificed millions of his countrymen for a bad idea. Let’s hope those around Trump can convince him that the cure for the disease is the cure for the economy.
 



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