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Everyone Saw This Coming


Friday May 22, 2015

Twenty-seven years ago, when the world briefly awoke to the threats of global warming and tropical deforestation, scientists could only speculate on what changes might come in the future. Now, one need only look and observe.

Nineteen years ago, I went to Antarctica to report for Time magazine on the ways in which global warming was affecting the frozen continent. One concern was the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (or WAIS).

In 1996, scientists had detected an increase in the velocity of the so-called “ice streams,” which transport ice from the interior of the immense glacier to the shore. The fear was that as WAIS diminished, salt water might intrude under the ice and eventually cause it to float, raising sea level around the world, and inundating large swaths of Florida, not to mention Bangladesh, Indonesia and other low lying areas that are home to hundreds of millions of people.

This year, Eric Rignot, a scientist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, published a study confirming these fears with the stark conclusion that the ice sheet is in a state of “irreversible decline,” and in early May, Princeton University researchers released a new study confirming the accelerating melting.

The great ice sheet won’t collapse any time soon, but it’s a chilling thought in a warming world that an ice sheet that has been stable through the entire time modern humans have existed has now begun to come apart.

More than 20 years ago, INPE, Brazil’s Space Agency published studies arguing that continued cutting of the Amazon was diminishing the vast forest’s ability to recycle moisture. Water – it used to be seven trillion tons each year – evaporated from the Amazon forest rises above the forest, bounces south along the Andes, and then is carried by prevailing winds, first across the dryer areas of southern Brazil and then, after traversing the Atlantic, to South Africa, where it nourishes the corn crop. Since then, the forest has shrunk by an area equivalent to the size of Texas, and now residents of Sao Paulo, the hemisphere’s largest city, desperately scrabble for water after multiple years of drought have desiccated the reservoirs.

And of course, at the same time, California is trying to cope with the worst drought in its modern history. This drought was predicted 18 years ago by Richard Seager of Columbia University, who in 1998 published a paper in Science arguing that a warming world shifted the global precipitation patterns pole ward leaving California and other mid-latitude regions in a rain shadow. Exacerbating California’s problems has been a diminished snowpack – this year at 6 percent of normal. Ordinarily, the snowpack stores water and then melting acts as a meter, delivering water during the dry summer months. Tim Barnett of Scripps Oceanographic Institute first predicted 15 years ago that the combination of drought and warming would have this result.

Are you seeing the pattern here? Time and again, the world’s best scientists have done their job and made predictions based on the best available evidence, only to watch in dismay as their predictions come true because an oblivious world fails to act.

Many other predictions made about the likely consequences of global warming have come to pass: more extreme weather events (a drumbeat of such studies the mid-1990s, with the most recent published in Nature Climate Change on April 27); the disappearance of arctic sea; the collapse of fish populations in the Pacific; and even the series of frigid winters in the Northeast, fueled by a slowdown of the ocean circulation pattern that distributes heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic (predicted by Wallace Broecker of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in an article in Science in 1997, and now back in the news).

Can it be said unequivocally that the drought in California is related to climate change, or that Sao Paulo’s water crisis is tied to cutting of the Amazon, or that there is, in fact undeniable evidence of an increase in extreme weather events? Nope, weather might be the most complicated phenomenon on the planet, influenced at any given time by myriad cycles as well as by such disparate factors as air pollution, land, even the expansion of cities, as well as the difficulty of obtaining consistent measurements on a global scale.

As new predictions of past decades come to pass, however, it makes it harder to explain these changes as coincidence. And there are quite unequivocal signals of a warming planet. Sea level rise, resulting from increased melting of ice and the thermal expansion of the oceans, offers a mute, global signal of a warming planet. Moreover, sea level is rising much faster than predicted, possibly because ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting more rapidly than predicted.

Could any of these unfortunate events have been prevented? Of course! Fifty years ago, Rachel Carson published Silent Spring, which warned that unchecked use of DDT would lead to the collapse of bird populations. The United States and other developed nations banned the pesticide, and bird populations have recovered to the point where bald eagles visit New York City (China ignored the warnings about DDT, and has suffered the silent spring that Carson predicted). Dealing with greenhouse gas emissions is vastly more complicated, but it is highly likely that the world would be in a better position to fight the threat now had it begun to take action in 1988.

Now we’ve gone backwards. Thanks to a campaign to discredit the threat of climate change financed by the fossil fuel industry and vigorously promoted by Fox News and other right-leaning media, fewer Americans think global warming is human caused than they did eight years ago, according to a recent study conducted by Anthony Leiserowitz* of Yale University.

Think about that: even as predictions of past decades have become reality, the American attitude about global warming has shifted towards “prove it.” One thing is certain: we’ve forfeited the right to say, “Nobody saw this coming.”

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Short Take

[Mild spoiler alert: the book is a fictionalized exploration of a girl who falls under the spell of a Manson-like cult. We all know how that story unfolded. In this Short Take I’ll be offering my reactions to the protagonist, Evie Boyd.]

 

The Girls offers as bleak a view of the amorality of American youth as I have ever encountered. In a review of my first book, I was called “Intolerably apocalyptic,” but I can’t hold a candle to Ms. Cline. The book is a novelistic attempt to try and understand how some of the privileged young women of the late 1960s could commit unspeakable acts while under the sway of a Manson-like psychopath. 

 Thus we meet Evie Boyd, a fourteen year-old growing up amid relative affluence in Petaluma California. She’s directionless, with no apparent passions, self-conscious about her looks, emotionally needy, alienated from her parents (who get divorced), but possessed of a tough inner core and a rebellious streak. She’s enthralled when she encounters Suzanne, a wild, charismatic 19 year-old who seems to be a composite of Patricia Krenwinkel and Leslie Van Houton, and Evie is honored when Suzanne pays her some attention. Events bring her to the cult’s squalid ranch, and for some weeks, Evie maintains a dual life, throwing herself into the life of the cult, while returning home enough not to galvanize her mother, who is pre-occupied with a rebound relationship with Frank, an entrepreneur who comes across as a hustler with a heart of gold.

Evie is so smitten by Suzanne that she doesn’t notice as the cult spirals down from talk of love and freedom to episodes of paranoia, back-biting and revenge. Along the way, Evie has her first sexual adventures, and enters sufficiently into the spirit of the cult that she brings them to the house of the family next door (which they descrate), even though she has known the family all her life and has no score to settle. Later, Evie talks her way into joining Suzanne as she and others set off to inflict mayhem on a Dennis Wilson-like figure, but Suzanne kicks her out of the car before they begin a horrific rampage.

Did Suzanne do this to protect Evie from what she knew was about to happen, or because she felt that Evie wasn’t a murderer and would become a liability? That’s left unanswered, but the bloodbath that Evie missed is so depraved – including the slashing apart of a toddler – that no human with a soul could find that earlier gesture redemptive … except for our Evie, who still feels the tug of Suzanne’s power, even after she learns every gory detail of Suzanne’s actions.

It’s several months between the time of the murders and when the cult is finally caught. During this time, Evie keeps her mouth shut about what happens and meekly allows herself to be shipped off to boarding school to resume her comfortable existence, though as a wreck, not a spirited teenager.

That’s when I decided Evie was a worthless human being. Sure, she was terrified that the cult would come after her, and there’s some honor on not squealing, but Evie had to know that the cult would likely kill again, and that made her an enabler of whatever they did subsequently.

The book interweaves the present and the past and so we learn how these events haunted Evie’s life. But there’s no redemptive moment, no act where she summons the courage to do the right thing, or rises above her own self-absorption. Even in the present, when the psychopath-in-the-making son of a friend and his underage, impressionable girlfriend crash at her digs, she can only summon a half-hearted (and failed) attempt to save the girl from following the path that so grievously sidetracked her own life.

All the men in the book are either pathetic or pigs of various shapes and forms – except for a premed student named Tom, who sees the cult for what it is, but who Evie rejects as a dork. Towards the end of the book, Evie ticks off a long list of subsequent experiences with awful men that could summon in her the hatred to commit horrendous crimes, seeming to imply that with the right mix of events, she too might have become a Suzanne, and, by implication, so could enormous numbers of other young women.

My first reaction was to call “Bullshit!” Were all young women potential Suzannes, we would have seen endless repeats of the Manson horrors in the nearly 50 years since the events. Instead, those murders still stand as a touchstone of horror because nothing since has eclipsed their mindless violence.

The Manson cult was at the far far end of the normal curve during truly abnormal times. In just the two years leading up to the murders, we had the huge escalation of a senseless war, the explosion of the anti-war movement and counter-culture, a breakdown of generational trust, my generation’s first experiences with powerful, mind-altering drugs, and a sexual revolution. In a country of more than 200 million people, that roiling stew of disruptive forces bubbled to the surface about 20 broken souls, deranged by drugs and in the thrall of a false prophet.

On reflection, however, maybe Ms. Clein was making a different point. All we have to think of are the teenage executioners of Pol Pot’s Cambodia or the child soldiers of Africa to recognize that the capacity for evil lies latent in the young. And, while in fiction we want our protagonists to find redemption or transcend their flaws perhaps Evie’s failure to rise to the occasion was making the point that a civilization that keeps our murderous impulses in check is not innate, but something external that has to be actively inculcated and supported. That’s something to keep in mind amid the current insanity of gun violence, and as more dark clouds gather on the horizon.



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